Re: Farmas USA
ARNA. Una muestra de las cabalas que se hacen los usanos.
No apoyo ni desmiento la informacion, solo la presento, demasiados numeros como para revisarlos y ya es hora de irse a dormir.
Following is the revised estimate with an S-Curve Patient Projections over a four year buildup period.
- Shares Outstanding to Date (includes 11M Share Offering & Warrants) ~ 235,000,000
- Estimated BELVIQ annual revenue per patient in Y2013 (BID @ $2.93 a pill)= $674
- European Union Countries Exposure in Y2013= 349,784,036
- US Exposure in Y2013 = 323,597,224
- Additional Population in most of North and South America per May 09, 2012 Amendment as following:
Canada Exposure in Y2013 = 35,350,704
South America Exposure in Y2013 = 270,765,845
Total Population Exposure in US , Europe, Canada and South America in Y2013 = 979,497,809
- Population of Clinically Obese @ 30% = 293,849,343
- Number of Clinically Obese seeking BELVIQ Treatment @ 5% with an S curve Target Population 4 Year Distribution
- Period between Y2013 (0%) thru Y2016 (100%) = 14,692,467
BELVIQ Net Revenue at 1.60% Population Growth Rate for Y2013 and beyond and a 3.5% Inflation on the Net Revenue per patient: (Note the annual number of patients is integrated over each year period)
Y2013 For 222,050 patients @ $674 = $149,639,165
Y2014 For 3,098,831 patients @ $697 = $2,161,392,891
Y2015 For 11,439,102 patients @ $722 = $8,257,870,596
Y2016 For 14,577,340 patients @ $747 = $10,891,678,026
Y2017 For 14,692,467 patients @ $773 = $11,361,916,245
5 Year Revenue at Y2013 based on 25% Discounted Rate = $18,661,986,613
Net Present Value of Market Cap = $18,030,904,940
Total Number of Shares Outstanding = 235,000,000
Present Value per Share based on US Sales = $25.35
Present Value per Share based on Europe Sales = $27.40
Present Value per Share based on Canada & South America = $23.98
TOTAL Present Value per Share based on US, Europe, Canada and South America sales assuming BELVIQ is successful thru Approval and Marketing= $76.73
