Participaciones del usuario Investing_saints - Contenidos recomendados

16/11/19 12:13
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FGENMe he quedado con los 150 cromos (estos a media sobre $38). Después de leer todo lo disponible acerca de los resultados estoy casi convencido (todo lo que uno puede estar si conocer la ciencia al detalle y sabiendo que esto son bios) de que habrá aprobación de ambas indicaciones y que no habrá problemas de seguridad. No estoy tan seguro acerca de la black box, pero veremos la Adcom cómo sale. Porque casi seguro que habrá una, lo contrario sería una gran sorpresa.Los shorts han conseguido sembrar la duda, igual que pasó con AMRN; en esta no entré porque a pesar de que parecía bastante claro me daba bastante respeto la FDA. A ver si la aprueban y luego ya haremos cálculos de posibles ventas para ver hasta dónde puede llegar o si está cara en ese momento. Creo que ahora está un poco cara, pero no he investigado en detalle, me guío por algunos comentarios de b2k, su capitalización y ventas.Pero por mucho que haya dudas, estoy tranquilo con los cromos que llevo (FGEN) y pienso seguir teniéndolos hasta el final. Ya veremos cómo evoluciona la cosa, pero hasta la Adcom y PDUFA (en principio Q4 2020 si no hay priority review) la veo en un rango de $35-$45 si no hay sorpresa (como que AZN decida aumentar su participación), así que intentaré tradear con una parte aprovechando la indecisión que parece que hay.MRKRHubo varias malas noticias pero ninguna desastrosa. Se paró un estudio por culpa de un tercero y descartaron un estudio de los antiguos (igual se van cargando los programas TPIV). Solo llevaba 200 cromos de una posición inicial y me salí a $3.25 con cerca de un 20% de pérdidas y reentré por debajo de $3. Es bastante especulativa así que no quiero llevar muchas, pero compraré algo más si se acerca s $2.5.Me alegro por los que llevaban esas AMRN, sabe muy bien cuando ha habido que pelearlo tanto. También por los de las TEVA. Yo en esa guerra ni de lejos quería estar, qué miedo me da esa companía, más que un mono con dos pistolas...
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11/11/19 15:10
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FGENYo he ido comprando esta tarde conforme caía. Datos algo dudosos. hay zona gris y la empresa no ha dado toda la información disponible, largos y cortos tienen sus razones. Me he liado y cargado bastante, he acabado con 150 cromos. Más vale que no haya sorpresas negativas en la EC después del cierre...
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09/11/19 07:22
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
 An Epic biotech week Notes: Cell TherapiesThe cell therapy space has been under intense pressure lately. I think a lot of it has to do with the underwhelming sales put up my the already commercial CAR-T drugs. I also think people are realizing that CAR-T is not working in solid tumors. I think the market is starting to realize new cell therapies are needed in solid tumors, and we don't have any clear winners. The TIL program is the best in class so far, but we still have to see data from the neoantigen programs. The early data from some of those programs was very weak.FATE – This is still my top dog for cell therapies. I think investors are starting to stress over the first data read outs which should come next year. I get that the first programs will be unedited NK cells so there is a chance the market doesn't get the data, but I think its cheap for a long term investment. Ultimately, it will come down to the data.IOVA – This is my second favorite has TIL has proven to be a big winner in the solid tumor indications. We just got more great data from these programs this morning. I think this could be the big winner in the solid tumor space as I am not on board with the neoantigen personal vaccine programs. I think its about fully valued right now. I would like to see it get cheap to buy more, but I am not a seller yet.MRKR – Their Peripheral Blood Cells program has the potential to be right up there with the TIL programs for solid tumors. They just need to pick the right antigens for each cancer type instead of trying to do one PBC meets all. The company is crazy cheap if the science works out. The only competitor they have is IOVA which announced they would be getting into the PBC game.ALLO – They are working on allogeneic CAR-T programs focused on the already well developed cancer targets like CD-19 and BCMA. They do have a unique lymphodepletion drug with their anti CD-52 antibody. This company has the impressive KITE management. They are valued at a huge premium to all other CAR-T companies. I can live with that since I know I am getting a winning management team.ATRA – This CAR-T company has been the red headed step child of the CAR-T space since their CEO announced he was leaving back in January. The downward slide had nothing to do with their science as all the data read outs since then have been right on par with the data from before the CEO resigned. The biggest issue here is the massive cash burn. The new CEO just announced they would cut costs after doing a strategic review of all programs. He also sounded open to partners. I am not ready to give up on this one as the data has not changed. The new CEO sounds great. 
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09/11/19 07:22
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
 An Epic biotech week Notes: Gene EditingThe Genetics editing space has been challenging of late. Ever since SGMO has failed in-vivo editing, the move has been toward ex-vivo editing of T cells and Stem cells. That is all good since there are some huge opportunities in that space, but now you have a dozen companies all chasing the same indications. Some of the newer technologies like Homolgous Recombination and Homing Endonucleases are unproven. It could be a decade before we know they are truly safe. My biggest fear in in-vivo gene editing is another disaster where the patients all develop cancer years after being treated.SGMO – They have gone from the hopeful front runner in the in-vivo race to the underdog. I still think SGMO has a huge platform of technology that it can develop, and its all at an extremely cheap value. They have the new gene therapy platform they are developing to fill the gap until their in-vivo editing issues get worked out. They have a fantastic ex-vivo editing program that is very successful for both T cells and Stem cells. I will admit I am not sold on much beyond that yet. I do think the cell therapies alone more then justify this value. A lot of shots on goal here with multiple platforms. It would be foolish if I thought everything would be a success with these programs.CRSP – This is my top dog in gene editing. It still owns all of its T cell editing programs, and it is in some very awesome programs like its regenerative medicine around iPSC. There is no doubt that this company is the fan favorite and the valuation is really up there. That hasn't stopped me from embracing it on the fundamentals and making a ton of profits off trading it. I think they have a huge potential future that could make them the Celgene of gene editing someday.EDIT – Not my favorite company for CRISPR, but its just so cheap. I think they don't have their act together wit their science. They do have a very cheap valuation, and they are in some good indications. The eye has a limited immune system. There are not antibodies inside the eye. The retinal injections for eye disorders do not provoke immune responses. We see this in RGNX's data as they are doing people with pre-existing antibodies with no problems. They also have their T cell editing program already partnered which gives them lower potential. The rest of their pipeline is around muscle and lung diseases and we see issues in this space as the current vectors to not penetrate these tissues well. I think is a solid back up company in the CRISPR space if my CRSP got bought out.NTLA – I am not a fan of this CRISPR company at all. They are highly partnered with Regeneron for their lead drug. They are going right into the in-vivo editing. I think that only sets them up to be the company that makes all the mistakes with developing in-vivo editing. I think this one is only setting itself up to disappoint its investors over and over again as it pioneers in-vivo editing with CRISPR technology. God help us if they really mess it up. They really have no other programs that are all that interesting. Cheap is sometimes cheap for a reason.FIXX – They have a very early stage science platform around Homologous Recombination. The science sounds great, but I am concerned how it translates in-vivo without off target editing. This science platform has not been proven to edit in humans yet. I am just watching from the sidelines.DTIL – They have a platform called ARCUS which uses custom built homing endonucleases. These are built for each and every indication. I wonder how much time and costs really goes into designing these things. They did have some early data for ex-vivo editing of T cells that was very good. That goes a long way to show this works at least in the ex-vivo setting. All the same concerns of off target editing with the in-vivo applications still exist. 
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09/11/19 07:21
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
 An Epic biotech week Notes: Gene TherapyI have broken down my genetics watch list into 3 separate lists for Gene Therapy, Genetic Editing and RNA technologies.QURE – This company has had a very wild ride. It started when their Hemophilia B data bested that of ONCE. That sent the stock into a frenzy as it was undervalued. It was the underdog after all. Then it peaked after the frenzy drove it to over $70 on an announcement they were looking for a buyer. It went to the complete opposite extreme finally bottoming in the $30's again. Now I think it is more fairly valued for the limited data it has from many of its programs. I do not believe a big cap biotech will go after such early stage assets. Overall, I think its a very solid pick for a gene therapy company for anyone interested.RGNX – This is a company I have been in and out of for years. It got way to carried away on the frenzy into their first data read outs for wet AMD. Since then, the company has come back down to earth and I got back in. They have a very big indication available to them with wet AMD and Diabetic Retinopathy. They had some challenges lately and of no fault of their own. Their partner for Zolgensma got jammed up by the FDA. Now they have an issue with one of the companies that supplies their injectors. I think its held up very well in spite of all the challenges.KRYS – This is probably one of my favorites of late. The data from their topical gene therapy for skin disorders has exceeded all my expectations. They have the additional bonus of being cheap on valuation compared to other companies in this space.BOLD- I really like this company, but I felt it was way too expensive. I sold completely out of it and replaced it with RGNX. I still think it is very expensive for the limited development it has so far. Their DMD program could really drive the value, but it is still in preclinic. It is now up against a bunch of competitors. The programs it has in later stage of development are very small indications.FOLD – This on got onto my list recently. It had been an old school enzyme replacement therapy company. They recently jumped into the gene therapy game. This is now the company I had hoped BioMarin would have become. A blending of the old school ERT that works with the promise of the future in gene therapy. They don't have much data on their gene therapy programs yet. I don't think the company is too expensive. It trades at about 11x its 2019 projected revenues. That isn't bad based on its sales, and it offers a nice pipeline on top of that. 
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09/11/19 07:17
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
MRNAComentó ayer b2k sobre compañías, y destacó esta:An Epic biotech week Notes: RNAI only follow 3 RNA based companies. I do not like the Antisense technology so I don't follow IONS. I think that science is just too toxic for my taste. I also don't follow ALNY any more as its way to expensive for me. I think eventually all RNAi will be replaced by gene regulation from the gene editors. I don't want to buy a sector of science that could be obsolete in a few years. That only leaves the RNA space geared toward producing in-vivo proteins or targeting viral proteins. Those are two spaces where genetics can not do the same thing RNA can.MRNA – This is my super top RNA company. They use RNA technologies to produce in-vivo proteins. Most of it is about producing viral antigens to the body to provoke an immune response for vaccines. I love that science. They are also encoding in-vivo antibody creation. It offers passive immunity toward active infections and cancer targets. The early data has been very promising. If the technology proves out, it could be a huge company someday.ARWR – I was a big fan of the company until they partnered out most of their Hepatitus program. It was the one space where gene regulation could not go. They do have a big pipeline of RNA programs that could do very well until gene regulation comes into its time. The big issue with them is the value. This company is extremely expensive.DRNA – This is one I am not really familiar with as of yet. They have a very big pipeline, several partners and a very cheap valuation compared to their peers. They are in much earlier development then the rest. I have been only following them for a short time, but I think its a solid pick in this space. 
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08/11/19 15:03
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FGENYo estoy comprando, llevo 70 media cromos media un poco por debajo de $40...Edito, he vendido 20 a $44.32.Esta estaba para darle pero bien este rato...
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08/11/19 14:34
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FGENCastaña? Los datos que he visto parecen muy buenos. Abre con +17% (más de +25% desde antes de cerrar).
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08/11/19 14:07
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FGENBuenas noticias aparentemente. Comparable a placebo. He comprado antes 10 cromos. Había buenas opciones de que fuera positivo pero no me he atrevido a tener más de 30 cromos para el evento...https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2019/roxadustat-phase-iii-programme-pooled-analyses-showed-positive-efficacy-and-no-increased-cv-risk-in-patients-with-anaemia-from-chronic-kidney-disease.html
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