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Participaciones del usuario Investing_saints - Contenidos recomendados

07/07/20 05:10
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
NVAX 1.6B de ayuda!!!http://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-16-billion-funding-operation-warp-speed
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02/07/20 16:18
Ha respondido al tema Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
De forma muy reducida dice que si no se sabe inglés no se debe invertir en bios del Nasdaq.Con menos resumen que en principio la FDA no va a aprobar vacunas que no eviten infectarse (la de Oxford parecía que podría no evitar la infección pero sí los efectos más severos). Y que para las primeras vacunas fases 3 no va a haber aprobaciones por niveles de anticuerpos. Quieren ver qué cantidad es necesaria para conferir protección (si es que lo hace, claro) para así las siguientes vacunas en fase 3 comparar con estos valores y poder aprobarse con un valor establecido de anticuerpos, cosa que favorece a los que lleguen detrás como NVAX.
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01/07/20 09:00
Ha respondido al tema Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
redplate:FDA guidanceThe FDA has released guidance (posted earlier here) and that sets the bar at >50% reduction of disease. They also stated no approvals by way of antibody only results since no true correlate of protection (amount) has been shown.Good. First it does not really clearly say how disease is measured but it says ‘Infection’ so they likely want a PCR negative data set, ie no infection. Means that a vaccine that prevents severe disease but allows upper respiratory tract infection (Ad5 Oxford NHP data) would not be considered approvable. That may change, but for now it appears ‘disease modification’ is a no. So look for final ph3 top line data details to include this.Next is the ‘no antibody based approvals’ rule. This is entirely consistent with the ph3 proposal described by Corey/Mascola where they say the key goal for early studies will be to validate the antibody surrogate. This so that later studies will have a valid surrogate that sets a quantity of antibody required. This idea that data will dissect pts with high medium and low (and zero) antibodies, and determine if those >1/200 titers are protected, then vaccines that create average titers >1/200 could be approved. If MRNA data combined with Ad5 data show enough of this antibody data to validate the surrogate then companies not yet through ph3 with high antibody titers from ph2 (NVAX exact fit) then EUA could be gained for NVAX before or simultaneous with any other candidate.If ph1 generates a repeat of the NHP data and neutralizing titers are indeed >1/2000, I expect the Ph3 early trials are being done to establish the surrogate as a gateway to the real vaccine. This allows for EUA of NVAX as soon as MRNA has their data. That is ‘if’ MRNA has enough high responders to establish the surrogate.Verrry interesting and exactly as I would hope to be the case. The ph3 design/concept is brilliant and FDA is playing along nicely
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30/06/20 10:49
Ha respondido al tema Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
Valuaciones y escenarios. Redplate en IV. Poco más que añadir. Su análisis coincide en 2B-3B sin covid.I was asked by Horcents how one might create a valuation model for the insanity that has/is happening with NVAX (and the world). So first I will reverse the question and ask ‘what was the pandemic worth to NVAX. That’s obvious it was worth infinity and beyond. At the news of NF ph3 success the company was crippled and almost unable to sufficiently finance their future to ever launch NF. Market response was tepid (15 fell back to 12) and their was wide spread fear of needing another raise or negotiate a weak deal with a pharma (they smell blood) and shareholders would be screwed at ‘maybe’ 15-20 bucks. And that was a tad shaky as they clearly needed money.Then CoViD comes. And unlike SARS and Ebola and Zika it comes and it stays. And your company has existed for the very purpose of creating vaccines for emerging infectious diseases. Your technology was validated as best in class for an airborne lung disease transmission the same month that the 100 year pandemic, an airborne lung disease pathogen. Lightening strikes at the very moment that the technology was proven comes the challenge of a lifetime. So right place right time all that but remember this is the company’s mission statement. They have been saying ghost buster style ‘ we got this’. Ventman saying ‘trust me I’m a scientist’ and they cross the beams. This is what you bought, a chance at this golden ring. This isn’t an accident but it is entirely fortuitousSo three scenarios.One they eff this CV thing up and don’t get a contract. Where are you? Well now NF to market and a facility to make it are both paid for. And maybe only half or less at shareholders and offerings at waaaay higher price that possible without CV. They can launch flu on money in the bank and they can own it. That alone makes them worth a lot more than before CV, even though they are only NF they are way better off. They may be able to launch an RSV ph3, but will need money to finish it.Flu will run to 200 up to 400 million, they get a 5x of that market cap 2-3 billion. Not today’s price but way better than it would have been. And this is with CZv failure.Second scenarioNVAX is one of a half dozen decent CV vaccines that get approved and sell 300m500m doses a year and make 50-100 cents profit/dose. (Low margin market value is going to be different than typical pharma margin valuations, but a 500m dollar profit plus 4-500m in sales for NF and easy this is a 10B enterprise And any upside from RSV is gravy, but still 3 years or more out. It will not add to valuation until proven. Market sees two ph3 fails. So until it reads out again, until then it’s a high risk high return, but it’s a gamble.Any upside news and it’s up to 15B and maybe just maybe without much dilution.Third scenario. Total win, best in class CV vaccine, contracts for 1.5 billion doses, and wave after wave of CV stays in our future. NF now bumps sales to 600-750m by way of a contact high (Name value). The name Now sells NF at premium prices and margins get better. There is no rational means to properly value the company that wins this race. some have asked what is the emotional value/name value for the winner? Don’t know. But it will run to an emotional price. But is that the Real value, the true value? A big number might happen but it won’t be sustained. It will settle ultimately to a P/E ratio ok’d school kind of number.So I didn’t really answer but dodged around the top and bottom edges
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28/06/20 03:43
Ha respondido al tema Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
Ok. Te lo preguntaba porque haciendo números, por fundamentales me sale una valuación actual de cerca de $50 sin tener en cuenta el covid. Hice unos números en este hilo y también puse los de b2k que daban un resultado parecido.
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26/06/20 12:45
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
Exacto, como dice la canción:You've got to know when to hold 'emKnow when to fold 'emKnow when to walk awayAnd know when to run…https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo
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24/06/20 11:49
Ha respondido al tema Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
¿A qué te refieres con poco volumen?Por cierto, yo vendí ayer la mitad (20 cromos) a cerca de $70. Todo lo que siga subiendo es COVID con todo lo que ello implica.
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24/06/20 11:45
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
NVAX Ayer vendí la mitad (20) a cerca de $70, ya me parecía que había subido de más. Hasta julio y resultados aún queda... Ahora sí que está cotizando COVID.PFEYo tengo unas cuantas en la cartera de dividendos. Dividendo medianamente seguro (75 le da SSD, M* wide moat y Financial Health moderate), barata. Si cae algo más aumentaré.A mí me parece bien que haga el mercado lo que quiera. Prefiero que baje un buen meneo que tengo bastante liquidez, pero si sigue subiendo tampoco pasa nada.
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23/06/20 12:38
Ha respondido al tema Farmas USA
FATE Sí, es muy buena empresa. Creo que he puesto algún análisis por aquí de b2k de la misma. Entré este año (no con muchas) a $21 $18 en marzo y las vendí a $32 en abril para hacer algo de liquidez y porque pensaba reentrar. Pero me despisté y han vuelto a subir. El offering reciente muy bueno, creo que fue a $28. Si cae algo (o inlcuso si no lo hace depende de cómo la vea) entraré de nuevo seguro.KPTITampoco he vendido pero llevo muy pocas.
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