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Farmas USA

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#117594

Re: Farmas USA

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EXEL
Es una buena compañía pero solo tiene un medicamento principal que además poco a poco va teniendo competencia. Va bien de pasta, está barata, pero el mercado no ve mucho crecimiento futuro y por eso está donde está.

Yo no llevo muchas, 80 cromos. La idea es comprar más si baja un 20% o así y vender al menos la mitad si lo sube.

Último análisis de b2k:
 

In Depth Analysis: EXEL


Management
I think Michael Morrissey is a fantastic CEO. He took control of Exelixis when it was in desperate times, and he turned it all around. He built it into a very profitable small biotech company. He speaks very well and knows the science. I have not agreed with all his decisions though. I think he is too risk adverse. This has left the company with no real pipeline to drive future growth. I just don't think he has what it takes to take Exelixis to the next level.

Pipeline
Cabozantinib:
Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma:
There are estimated about 30,000 patients in the US
About 15,000 are First line
50% Market Share = 7,000
46% ORR in previously untreated RCC = $569 million
About 17,000 are second line
50% Market Share = 8,500
21% ORR in second line RCC = $294 million

I think this market will be split between PD-1 and Cabozanitnib, but eventually become more fragmented as other TKI's come to market like Lenvatinib. I gave them 50% market share for RCC. If they show superior data in combo with PD-1 vs Lenvatinib, then I might be able to give them more market share. That gives me total Cabozantinib sales for RCC at $863 million in the US.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma:
Estimated to be 31,500 HCC patients in the US each year
25% Market Share = 7,875
5% ORR in second line, but Disease control happened in 64% = $831 million
Due to the low Overall Response rates of Cabozantinib, I gave them about 25% market share of the HCC Market. The very low response rate is bound to put off a lot of doctors, but I think there are limited options so eventually they will see Cabozantinib with its extended survival endpoints.

Radioiodine-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer:
Estimated 54,000 new cases of Thyroid Cancer each year
Estimated that 90% of them are Differentiated = 48,600
Estimated 5% to 15% become resistant to radioiodine therapy = 4,860
? (54% guess) on ORR = $432 million

metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma:
? on patient numbers
42% ORR
Estimated $250 million until I can get better data.
 
Refractory Non Small Cell Lung Cancer:
Estimated 228,000 cases of lung cancer in the US each year
84% of them will be NSCLC = 191,520
Starting at $250 million potential until we get more data

matastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer:
Estimated 165,000 Prostrate Cancer patients each year in the US
Estimated 10% to 50% of cases advance to mCRPC = 49,500
Starting at $250 million potential until we get more data

Cobimetinib:
Cobimetinib is world wide licensed to Genentech. It is commercial for BRAF mutant Melanoma. It is expected to reach $790 million in peak sales. They share the US and get a royalty on Ex-US sales. I have no number in my sales for Cobimentinib as it marginal.

XL092:
This is still in early clinic with no data.

Partners
Ipsen:
They are partnered for Cabozantinib for all areas except US, Canada and Japan.

Takeda:
They are partnered for Cabozantinib for Japan.

Genentech:
World wide license for Cobimetinib.

Daiichi Sankyo:
They are partnered for world wide rights to Minnebro.

Iconic Therapeutics:
They have a partnership with Iconic for their lead Antibody Drug Conjugate. If they exercise this option, they would pay up to $190 in milestones and a undisclosed royalty to Iconic.

Aurigene:
They have a partnership for up to 6 programs. Aurigene would be eligible for up to $280 million milestones and undisclosed royalties for each program.

Invenra:
They get world wide rights on up to 7 programs. They will pay up to $325 million in milestones and mid single digit royalties on these products.

GSK:
They opted back in 2008 to opt out of development of Cabozantinib. That was great for Exelixis, but they still have to pay GSK 3% royalty on all Cabozantinib sales.

Valuation
Cabozantinib:
RCC = $855 million * 5 for fully mature = $4.275 billion value
HCC= $831 million * 2 for phase 2 = $1.662 billion value
rrDTC = $432 million * 1 for phase 1 = $432 million value
mUC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value
NSCLC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value
mCRPC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value

Cobimetinib = $0

XL = $0

Cash = $1.2 Billion

Total Value = $7.644 billion
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#117597

Re: Farmas USA

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AKBA
Es competidora de FGEN. No la tengo estudiada a fondo pero es un buen contrapeso a FGEN y por eso quise pillar unas pocas a $3 que estaba bastante barata pero se me escapó. Va por detrás y queda aún un poco hasta resultados que determinarán cómo podrá competir. Desconozco si tiene algo a corto plazo pero me suena que no. Si pega otro bajón y entro ya le echaré un ojo más a fondo...

El CEO acaba de comprar me parece.
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#117599

Re: Farmas USA

framus_morrigan
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framus_morrigan
ACAD … siguiendo la proyección, viento en popa y a toda vela ...

TGTX
Empieza a cobrar forma un triangulo ascendente


SRPT
La proyección del iHCH esta ya agotada. Veremos si quiere continuar o que ... se encuentra a las puertas del gap

TRVN
por si hay algún interesado … a puntico de cerrar el gap

NVAX
Y asi quedó la cosa hoy … de seguir mañana podría quedar una vela semanal muy maja que señalice el fondo del pozo ...
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#117600

Re: Farmas USA

framus_morrigan
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framus_morrigan
Pero donde veo cositas realmente interesantes es en las grandes

AMGN breakout de canal en semanal … ahí que va … esperemos que no se arrepienta mañana



CELG
toma volumen! supongo que con esto el buyout se habrá completado y asunto cerrado, me imagino … 


REGN breakout del triangulo ascendente y de RSI en semanal . Target minimo seria su MM200 semanal


LLY Breakout de bull flag


Y uno empieza a mirar con ojillos un posible breakout de … GILD, si... he dicho GILD.



TEVA
bueno, esta va su aire ...
doji en semanal por ahora a falta de confirmar mañana … o no ...



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