Farmas USA

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#113858

Re: Farmas USA

framus_morrigan

 

Que sean o no rupturas falsas provocadas por la manipulacion del dia de brujas de ayer … eso no lo sabremos hasta la proxima semana … en cualquier caso, ahi van unos cuantos semanales con cierre en modo breakout

EXEL

y yo pregunto … a estas alturas ya os habrán liberado de esta pajara, no? O todavía quedan enganchados?

 

TRVN

ACHN, resistencia de canal me sale por los 3,3x-3,4x

 

ABBV

 

TEVA

Es bastante probable que entre el Lunes

 

NVAX. Y he aquí el anti-breakout ji ji .

 Martillo invertido semanal. Vela que siempre me ha dado dinero en esta pájara. Ya veremos en esta ocasión? ER el Lunes al cierre

 

 

#113859

Re: Farmas USA

Chartis

AKRX, AKORN

Soy un nuevo accionista con mis flamantes 100 acciones. En la caída brutal que tuvo en la zona 12,5 vendí una putt un par de veces que salieron perfectas. Me animé a continuar y me pilló el siguiente desplome con un putt 10 vendido. No sólo no ha recuperado sino que ha perdido la mitad de entonces.

Total, que para rolar a enero y me den 10 dólares he preferido que me las adjudiquen. A ver si puedo hacer algo con ellas, vender call, tradear,,, para eso tienen que aguantar o recuperar. A este ritmo cero patatero.

El caso que echando cuentas en vez de los 10 teóricos de compra me sale que las he comprado a 7 aproximadamente. Ayer cerraron a 3,38.

Supongo que es un auténtico truño, me gustaría si es posible, que algún fundamentalista me diera su opinión. Gracias anticipadas.

#113860

Re: Farmas USA

Investing_saints

MEIP

Esta la llevaba b2k pero lo hizo mal el año pasado porque necesitaba pasta. La ha dejado de poner en sus listas, aquí está su última ficha:

MEIP gets upgraded to 4.41 stars

First Recommended on August 2, 2018 @ $3.84

MEIP reported earnings after the close today, but had no conference call. Not a lot to report other then they had much more cash then I anticipated since they signed to cash upfront partnership deals. They still have two years worth of cash. That leads to me upgrading their star rating to reflect that.

1. Management: 4.66 stars

- Clinical Development: 5 stars (1 Breakthrough Therapy)

- Manufacturing: N/A

- Financial Management: 4 stars (Not profitable yet)

- Commercial Sales: N/A

- Good Communications: 5 stars

2. Science: 5 stars

MEI Pharma has 4 drugs in development. They have Pracinostat in phase 3 for AML and MDS. This is a HDAC inhibitor. It is partnered with world wide rights to Helsinn at a 15% royalty. Pracinostat has Breakthrough Therapy Designation for AML. They have ME-401 in early development with best in class data for a PI3K inhibitor for FL and CLL/SLL. They have another pathway drug in early development with Voruciclib in CLL. They have an early HER2 metabolic drug with ME-344.

3. Potential: 5 stars (+1468% over 10 years = 146% annual)

Pracinostat = $75 mil @ 15% royalty

ME-401 = $300 mil

Voruciclib = ?

ME-344 = ?

Total Peak Sales = $375 million * 8 P/S = $3 billion Market Cap peak

4. Financials: 4 stars (Not Profitable Yet)

Cash = $93 million

Cash Burn = $11 million per quarter

2 years of cash

5. Risks: 3.4 stars

-Diversified Pipeline: 5 stars (Has 4 drugs in pipeline)

-Stage of Development: 3 stars (Phase 3)

-Commercial: N/A

-Secondaries: 4 stars (2 Years of Cash)

-Clinical Failures: 5 stars (No failures yet)

Total Ranking: 4.41 stars

-

Y aquí un comentario de noviembre:

I think that is why the stock is already doing so poorly. Everyone expects a secondary down here as they only have $90 million in cash. That is actually more then 5 quarters of cash. They have plenty of time to ride this out and raise cash after more data. They could also surprise us all and partner their ME-401 program for a cash infusion. I know they mentioned being open to a partner for it with a 50/50 sharing in the US. They want a big partner to hold their hand through their first commercial launch and teach them. I am not overly concerned about the cash so soon. I am certain this biotech disaster will end this year with the flush coming from tax loss selling. I am more concerned on the data for them. PI3K inhibitors are notoriously bad for toxicity. ME-401 is the cleanest of the pack, but I still have an abundance of caution. I won't go much beyond a 3% to 5% position max on such a risky company.

-

Aquí explica de pasada por qué ya no sigue en ella:

DCPH is actually very cheap at under $1 billion market cap for a phase 3 company. I do agree it needs to show success in more indications now beyond GIST before its more of an investment like BPMC or LOXO then a spec.

Maybe your just confused by what I classify by and "investment" that I want to hold long term like an ARRY or BPMC and a spec that might be a great investment like a DCPH, MRTX, KURA or MEIP. I don't mind taking on risk as long as I know why I bought a company. Some are for investment and some are for speculation. I try to spread it around across a theme. I have two strong investments in pathway companies with ARRY and BPMC. I just dumped my spec in that theme with MEIP since I think it failed to live up to want I wanted. I think DCPH, MRTX and/or KURA can be new possible specs. That doesn't mean they will work out. I just means they could work out.

I think you mistake the statement that something does not meet investment criteria as one that I would not own it. That isn't true. I like to speculate as much as the next guy. I just want people to be fully warned its got a lot of extra risk. 

#113861

Re: Farmas USA

Investing_saints

BPMC DCHP

Creo que este es un mensaje interesante de b2k acerca de cómo hace su investigación y elige compañías:

 How I do reseach

I assume when most people do research it takes a short period of time. They might look over a company and decide they like it. When I do research, its a process that takes sometimes days, weeks, months or even years. I know Harry can tell you that He and I have been discussing DCPH for a month or two now. Know it better was part of my research for BPMC since they compete. 

First I knew that BPMC has very strong response rates in D842V and D816V mutations. When I compared that to the 23% response rate for DCPH in 2nd and 3rd line, that seems unimpressive. I was not making the correct correlation since Ripretinib is a pan PDGFRa/Kit inhibitor where Avapritinib is highly selective of only those two mutations. When I went back and dug up the data for Avapritinib in overall mutations, it had an 18% ORR. 

Then I had to understand the GIST market. There are 6 mutation in exon 9, exon 11, exon 13, exon 14, exon 17 and exon 18. Some of the drugs on market and Avapritinib only highly target 1 or two of those exon mutations. Only Ripretinib affect all exons equally. That offers some great value for Ripretinib that was previously unnoticed by me. It has strong data across the wide spectrum of exon mutation by the way it occupies the switch pocket and blocks the ATP from binding. Its superior to most drugs, but Avapritinib in the two mutations it highly targets. That means the market will split.

Then I had to understand the current standard of care. I knew that Imatinib had a 68% ORR in first line. No way Ripretinib would surpass that in first line. What about 2nd, 3rd or 4th line? Now there we have a chance. Sunitinib in 2nd line has only a 7% ORR vs Repritinib with 23%. Regorafenib has only a 4.5% ORR in 3rd line vs 23% ORR for Repritinib with 23%. The 4th line has no options. At least Repritinib offers 9% ORR in 4th line.

Then you look at the patients. There are 5,000 people each year diagnosed with GIST in the US. Nearly half of them at 2,100 will relapse multiple times to reach the 4th line setting. It is a very ugly cancer to take on. 

I have been in BPMC since January of 2018 and have been studying all this since then to fully understand just the company I owned in BPMC. It wasn't until the past few months that I realized that DCPH was also worth looking at. 

I agree its still very speculative at this point and it needs more development to prove that GIST wasn't just a one off for them with success. I am willing to take that chance. I wanted to lay this out for you and everyone else. I think it would explain a huge amount about how I work with my research. It is always moving, always changing and it is never ending. I don't stop doing due diligence when I pull the trigger on that first purchase. It never stops. 

#113862

Re: Farmas USA

Zokatira96

MEIP 

Gracias Investing muy util esa informacion, Yo me he apoyado en AT para escogerla y en un poco de AF y basado en eso espero libere datos + este Martes 19  cumpla mis expectativas y toque mi PO que esta en 6 usd y sino Stop Loss- Ese ranking de 4.5 es sobre 5, no? Declaran no Deudas y buen cash

#113864

Re: Farmas USA

Zokatira96

ACIU 

Investing  de esta tienes algun comentatio por ahi? Yo espero libre GNews en Lisboa el 26.y salga a buscar cerrar el gap 

--

Lausanne, Switzerland, March 4, 2019 - AC Immune SA (NASDAQ: ACIU), a Swiss-based, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a broad pipeline focused on neurodegenerative diseases, today announced that it will provide oral presentations addressing the progress of four of its early-stage product candidates and diagnostics at the 14th International Conference on Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease (AD/PD), taking place March 26th-31st in Lisbon.

http://cws.huginonline.com/A/171580/PR/201903/2237261_5.html

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